Economic Tendency Indicator drops back in November

The Economic Tendency Indicator fell 1.9 points from 108.4 in October to 106.5 in November but still points to stronger growth than normal in the Swedish economy. The retail, construction and services indicators rose, while the manufacturing indicator fell 4.4 points, but all remain above, or significantly above, their historical averages. The consumer indicator fell 3 points in November and is below the historical average.

Firms have optimistic employment plans

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry fell from 112.0 in October to 107.6 in November but still points to a stronger situation than normal. The decline was due partly to firms being less positive about their order books and partly to a slight downward revision of their production plans for the next three months, while their assessment of stocks of finished goods improved.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry edged up from 112.4 in October to 112.7 in November and continues to point to a much stronger situation than normal. The two components of the indicator moved in different directions: employment plans for the next three months became more optimistic and so made a positive contribution, while firms’ assessment of their order books deteriorated marginally and made a negative contribution.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade climbed further from 112.5 in October to 115.1 in November and remains well above the historical average. Two of its three components contributed to the increase: firms were more positive about sales in recent months and their stocks of goods, while expectations for sales over the next three months were marginally less positive but still much more optimistic than normal.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector gained almost a point from 105.7 in October to 106.5 in November and continues to point to a stronger overall situation than normal. The increase was due mainly to firms being more positive about how their operations have developed over the past three months, while their view of demand in recent months did not change appreciably and remains more positive than normal, and their expectations for demand over the next three months were as optimistic as before.  

Consumers downbeat about the Swedish economy

The consumer confidence indicator fell from 98.8 in October to 95.8 in November and continues to signal greater pessimism than normal. Expectations for the Swedish economy over the next 12 months fell even further and are well below the historical average. Consumers’ view of their personal finances, both now and over the next 12 months, also deteriorated somewhat, but is still more positive than normal. The only component to make a positive contribution to the indicator was the assessment of whether now is a good time to make major purchases, which did not change appreciably and remains much more positive than normal.

For further information:

Maria Billstam, Head of Economic Tendency Surveys +46 8 453 59 04

Sarah Hegardt Grant, Head of Communications +46 8 453 59 11

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