Altimo Mobile Development Index; Fortsatt attraktivt med investeringer innenfor mobil
Altimo Foundation, som på vegne av Altimo foretar sosiale satsinger i utviklingsland, presenterer i dag fjerde utgaven av den internasjonale undersøkelsen Altimo Index. Undersøkelsen beskriver det globale investeringsklima og muligheter innenfor mobile teletjenester. Undersøkelsen er utført av London Business School, Cambridge University og den moskvabaserte New Economic School, og tar utgangspunkt i data fra 80 forskjellige markeder.
Pressemelding på engelsk følger. Rapporten "Altimo Index, Issue 4 (Q1-Q3, 2008)" finnes med som vedlegg.
Increased investment attractiveness of large well-regulated developed economies and resource-based economies of emerging markets
The Altimo Foundation, a non-profit organization established to promote the social investment initiatives of Altimo in emerging markets, is pleased to announce the publication of the fourth Altimo Mobile Development Index (Altimo Index Q1-Q3 2008) that evaluates the investment opportunities represented by 80 international mobile telecoms markets.
Despite the global economical turmoil mobile operators have held up pretty well in Q1-Q3 2008, as wireless subscribers are still not willing to sacrifice mobile communications, which they view as an essential good. However Y2Y dynamics of Altimo Index shows that investors are negatively re-estimating potential attractiveness of the mobile industry in countries with weaker macroeconomic fundamentals, which are more prone to external factors. Respectively, investment attractiveness of telecoms in the large well-regulated economies of “Old World” and resource-based economies of emerging markets is rising.
The fourth Altimo Index highlights the following trends within the global mobile communications market:
- Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam are in Top 5 of Altimo Index due to an intensified growth in penetration and lucrative profit margins. These countries benefit from large populations and still have a strong potential to further expand client base in 2009-2011. The mobile markets of China and India remain in the Top 10 due to strong domestic demand staying firm despite the upcoming world’s economic recession.
- An attractiveness of risky investments at small or underdeveloped markets is falling due to a slowdown in prospective mobile spending and the impact of the credit crunch (e.g. Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, South Korea, most of African countries)
- Though CIS reaffirms its position among the most attractive regions there is an increasing gap between rich, well-regulated markets (e.g. Russia), and the ones with weak macroeconomic and industry fundamentals (e.g. Ukraine’s rating significantly fall comparing to H2 2007 results).
- The economic slowdown raised the attractiveness of telecom markets in both large and strong economies such as Germany, France, and USA, reflecting a recent positive shift in investors’ perception of non-risky and less profitable markets. Eastern European markets became no doubt the outsider in the Altimo Index due to weak macroeconomic fundamentals and saturated mobile markets (Croatia, Romania, and Estonia are among the forecasted leaders of two year negative growth.)
- The mobile industry in Latin America has improved its standing. Mexican mobile market seems the most robust to the external developments due to oil exports, which should sustain mobile spending and profit margins. Venezuela and Mexico are among 10 leaders of 2 years growth in Altimo Index. This trend of rising investment attractiveness of telecom markets in natural resource-exporting economies is also confirmed by African countries, such as Algeria, Angola, and Nigeria that are in Altimo Index Top 20.
- Middle East countries became more attractive among the underdeveloped markets and provide good investment opportunities for strong international telecom players. Iran, Egypt, and Turkey show Y2Y growth in Altimo Index; the first two are ranked top 10.
The Index is produced by the Altimo Foundation in collaboration the University of Cambridge, the London Business School, and the New Economic School (Moscow). Based on mobile industry and macroeconomic data (such as expected growth in ARPU, EBITDA margins, GDP growth, etc) for the six months to 30 September 2008, Altimo and its partners have generated an index which attributes investment ratings to the world’s mobile telecoms markets.
Kirill Babaev, Altimo Foundation CEO, concluded:
"The Altimo Index clearly outlines that, as a result of the current global economic environment, the non-risky well developed markets and the resource based emerging market economies are most attractive to investors. In the nearest months we expect investors to be even more conservative in their estimations of telecom markets, thus the large and predictable markets would remain the investment attractiveness leaders. Despite the global economic crisis, opportunities still remain in large underdeveloped mobile markets, in particular Asia and the Middle East."