Var fjärde amerikansk högränteobligation med kreditrating BB kan uppgraderas inom 18 månader

En fjärdedel av USA:s högränteobligationer med kreditrating BB kan komma att uppgraderas inom de kommande 18 månaderna, tack vare en stabil ekonomisk utveckling i USA. Det säger Ken Leech, CIO på Legg Masons dotterbolag Western Asset.

Ken Leech, som förvaltar över nio miljarder dollar i fonden Legg Mason Western Asset Macro Oppotunities Bond Fund, tror att tillväxtoptimismen i USA, i kombination med minskade stimulanser och stegvisa räntehöjningar, innebär att högränteobligationer fortfarande erbjuder värden för investerare, dock selektivt och inom vissa sektorer. 

Det gäller så kallade ”rising star issues”, dvs obligationer med en positiv rating-trend, som inom ett och ett halvt år kan komma att uppgraderas, vilket skulle innebära möjligheter inom specifika delsektorer.

– Med tanke på rådande värderingar har vi en fortsatt begränsad exponering mot högränteobligationer. Fokus ligger på obligationer med en positiv rating-trend, som har potentialen att ta klivet upp till kreditrating ”investment-grade”, alltså obligationer med högsta kreditvärdighet, säger Ken Leech.

– Om vår prognos träffar rätt tror vi att så många som var fjärde obligation med BB-rating kan komma att uppgraderas de närmsta 18 månaderna, fortsätter han.

Några av sektorerna som Western Asset fokuserar på är energi och finans. 

– Den meravkastning som högränteobligationer erbjuder, är lägre än vad den varit historiskt, men det anser vi är motiverat med både fundamentala och tekniska faktorer”, säger Leech.  Därför fortsätter vi att äga specifik risk hänförlig till de sektorer och emittenter som vi gillar. 

Möjligheter på tillväxtmarknader

Utöver obligationer med hög avkastning, där fonden har investerat cirka 9 procent, ser Leech och hans team på Western Asset också fortsatta möjligheter för obligationer på tillväxtmarknader – trots stigande räntor i USA.

Fonden har runt 40 procent av tillgångarna investerade i tillväxtmarknader som Brasilien, Ryssland och Argentina. 

– Vi är fortsatt positiva till obligationer på tillväxtmarknader och tror att kreditspreaden mot utvecklade marknader kan fortsätta att krympa.

– Därför är vi väl rustade för att kunna dra fördel av riskpremier i vissa utvalda obligationer på tillväxtmarknader, genom fortsatt exponering mot länder som uppvisar bra fundamenta och låg värdering.

För mer information, kontakta:

Legg Mason Global Asset Management
Constanze Ullmann +44 (0) 207 070 7438

Hallvarsson & Halvarsson
Eric Tapper – 076-109 05 80

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About Legg MasonGuided by a mission of Investing to Improve Lives,TM Legg Mason helps investors globally achieve better financial outcomes by expanding choice across investment strategies, vehicles and investor access through independent investment managers with diverse expertise in equity, fixed income, alternative and liquidity investments. Legg Mason’s assets under management are are $745 billion as of June 30, 2018. To learn more, visit our web site, our newsroom, or follow us on LinkedIn, Twitter, or Facebook.


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