SEB: Nordic Outlook: Downside risk from bottlenecks and financial markets, but recession will be avoided
Sweden: Slow Riksbank rate hikes in a housing-driven deceleration An ageing economic cycle is encountering downside risks due to labour market bottlenecks and volatile financial markets while trade-related and other political uncertainties persists, but these decelerating forces are not strong enough to trigger a recession. Subdued inflation will also give central banks room to ease their pace of normalisation. SEB is again lowering its GDP growth forecasts a bit, but the global economy will continue to grow at somewhat above its trend rate in 2019 and 2020. In Sweden, the growth outlook