BlackRockin Sovereign Risk Index (BSRI)-raportti: Suomi viidennellä sijalla
BlackRockin vuosineljänneksittäin julkaiseman eri valtioiden valtiontalouden tilaa kuvaavan BlackRock Sovereign Risk Index (BSRI) -raportin mukaan Suomi nousi viidennelle sijalle käytyään syyskuussa sijaa alempana. Selviä muutoksia edelliseen neljännekseen verrattuna oli seuraavien maiden luottotilanteessa: Australia, Etelä-Afrikka, Intia, Japani, Kiina, Uusi-Seelanti ja Yhdysvallat.
BSRI-raportissa tarkastellaan 48 eri valtion luottoriskiä. Raportti perustuu yli 30 kvantitatiiviseen mittariin, joita täydentävät kvalitatiiviset näkemykset riippumattomista lähteistä.
Raportin keskeiset kohdat:
- Japani putosi kaksi sijaa maan budjettitasapainon huomattavan heikkenemisen vuoksi.
- Yhdysvallat säilytti 15. sijansa horjuessaan talousjyrkänteen partaalla.
- Yhdysvaltojen talouden odotetaan pääsevän vauhtiin ja maailmantalouden veturiksi, mikäli poliittiset päättäjät pääsevät budjettisopuun.
- Australia, Kiina ja Uusi-Seelanti nostivat sijoitustaan parantuneen budjettitasapainon ansiosta. Australia nousi kerralla kolme sijaa.
- Intia paransi useimmilla osa-alueilla, mutta on edelleen 39. sijalla. Etelä-Afrikka putosi kaksi pykälää sijalle 36.
Alkuperäinen tiedote on kokonaisuudessaan alla. Interaktiivisen BSRI-työkalun avulla on mahdollista tarkastella yksittäisten maiden tuloksia sekä vertailla keskenään eri maita: interactive BSRI. Mapping Sovereign Risk -raportti pdf-muodossa Mapping Sovereign Risk sekä liitteenä.
Lisätietoja:
Viestintätoimisto Cocomms
Anna-Mari Tiilikainen, puh. 050 558 0888, anna-mari.tiilikainen(at)cocomms.com
NEW BLACKROCK SOVEREIGN RISK INDEX UPDATE:
Mapping Sovereign Risk
January 16, 2013 – BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE: BLK) today released its quarterly update of the BlackRock Sovereign Risk Index (BSRI), showing key movements by Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Africa and the United States. The BSRI provides investors with a framework for tracking sovereign credit risk in 48 countries, drawing on a pool of financial data, surveys and political insights.
Also noteworthy in today’s update is the newly created interactive BSRI, which allows for viewing individual country scores, comparing two countries and sorting overall rankings by index components.
The full update can be found in the report, Mapping Sovereign Risk.
About the BSRI
The BSRI was developed through the BlackRock Investment Institute (BII) in June 2011, in recognition of the growing focus by investors around world on sovereign risk debt. The BSRI uses more than 30 quantitative measures, complemented by qualitative insights from third-party sources. The index breaks down the data into four main categories that each count toward a country’s final BSRI score and ranking: Fiscal Space (40%), Willingness to Pay (30%), External Finance Position (20%) and Financial Sector Health (10%).* The BSRI is not meant to forecast the creditworthiness of countries
4th Quarter Highlights
Highlights for the quarter ended 31 December:
- Japan fell two spots in the rankings as a result of its sharply deteriorating fiscal balance – a space worth monitoring in 2013 as a new government and central bank governor settle in. “The fiscal profile of Japan worsened enough to cause it to slip two spots to 35th place, even as its other BSRI components improved. Japan now ranks just ahead of South Africa but below the likes of Turkey, Indonesia and Slovakia,” according to the BII.
- The United States remained at 15th place even as it teetered on the edge of the “fiscal cliff” of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts. “The last-minute deal was better than nothing, we think, but its limited scope means more tortured budget talks – and market volatility – ahead,” BII strategists said.
- China, Australia and New Zealand moved up in the rankings, with Australia jumping three spots due to an improved primary budget balance. “China rose two spots to 16th place on the back of higher government revenues as a percentage of GDP . China’s ‘Willingness to Pay score’ improved due to the relatively smooth once-a-decade leadership change,” according to the report.
- India remained at 39thplace, but the country’s profile improved on most fronts, according to the BII: “India’s ‘Fiscal Space’ improved on a lower debt-to-GDP level and an improving primary balance.
- Among major BSRI movements, the BII also noted that South Africa dropped two notches to 36th place: “South Africa slid two spots to 36th place mainly due to a rapidly worsening current account deficit. Anecdotal evidence has money fleeing the country at a rapid pace, and the BSRI appears to reflect this.”
The BSRI’s inputs are updated at irregular intervals, meaning some ratings changes may only reflect the timing of data releases. Small changes in ratings can spur big changes in rankings, as many issuers are bunched together in the index.
- Fiscal Space includes metrics such as debt to GDP, the debt’s term structure, tax revenues and dependency ratios.
- Willingness to Pay measures a government’s perceived effectiveness and stability, and factors such as perceived corruption.
- External Finance Position includes exposure to foreign currency debt and the state of the current account balance.
- Financial Sector Health gauges the banking system’s strength.
Mapping Sovereign Risk was authored by Ewen Cameron Watt, Chief Investment Strategist of the BlackRock Investment Institute; Thomas Christiansen of the BII; and Benjamin Brodsky, Garth Flannery and Sami Mesrour, all of the BlackRock Model-Based Fixed Income Team.
About the BlackRock Investment Institute
The BlackRock Investment Institute is a global platform launched in 2011 that leverages the firm’s expertise in markets, asset classes and investor segments. The Institute’s goal is to produce information that makes BlackRock’s portfolio managers better investors and helps deliver positive investment results for clients.
Lee Kempler, Executive Director
Ewen Cameron Watt, Chief Investment Strategist
Jack Reerink, Executive Editor
About BlackRock
BlackRock is a leader in investment management, risk management and advisory services for institutional and retail clients worldwide. At September 30, 2012, BlackRock’s AUM was $3.673 trillion. BlackRock offers products that span the risk spectrum to meet clients’ needs, including active, enhanced and index strategies across markets and asset classes. Products are offered in a variety of structures including separate accounts, mutual funds, iShares® (exchange traded funds), and other pooled investment vehicles. BlackRock also offers risk management, advisory and enterprise investment system services to a broad base of institutional investors through BlackRock Solutions®. Headquartered in New York City, as of September 30, 2012, the firm has approximately 10,400 employees in 29 countries and a major presence in key global markets, including North and South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and the Middle East and Africa. For additional information, please visit the Company's website at www.blackrock.com.
BlackRock
BlackRock on maailman johtavia sijoitusten ja riskien hallinnan sekä neuvontapalveluiden tarjoajia institutionaalisille ja yksityissijoittajille. BlackRockin hallinnoimat varat olivat 3 673 miljardia dollaria 30.9.2012. Yhtiön tuotteet vastaavat asiakkaiden tarpeisiin: ne kattavat sijoitustuotteiden koko riskiskaalan ja ne hyödyntävät aktiivisia, tehostettuja ja indeksistrategioita kaikilla markkinoilla ja kaikissa omaisuuslajeissa. Tuotteet ovat rakenteeltaan monipuolisia, mm. erillisiä tilejä, sijoitusrahastoja, pörssinoteerattuja iShares®-rahastoja (ETF) ja muita yhteissijoitustuotteita. BlackRock tarjoaa myös riskien hallinnan, neuvonnan ja yritysinvestointijärjestelmäpalveluja laajalle institutionaalisten sijoittajien ryhmälle BlackRock Solutions® -brändillä. BlackRockin pääkonttori on New York Cityssä, ja sillä oli noin 10 400 työntekijää 29 maassa (30.9.2012). Yhtiö on vahvasti läsnä kaikille tärkeimmillä markkinoilla Pohjois- ja Etelä-Amerikka, Eurooppa, Aasia, Australia, Lähi-itä ja Afrikka mukaan lukien. Lisätietoja www.blackrock.com.