Maakaasun hinta jatkaa laskuaan
Man Investmentsin raaka-ainejuttusarjan neljäs osa povaa maakaasun hinnan jatkavan laskusuunnassa.
Maakaasun hinta on laskenut Yhdysvalloissa merkittävästi viimeisen 3–4 vuoden aikana, ja moni odottaa pohjan tulleen jo vastaan. Epätavallisen lämpimät olosuhteet ja ylitarjonta aiheuttavat kuitenkin yhä hintapaineita. Maakaasun tuotannon kasvu jatkuu myös tänä vuonna, mikä potentiaalisesti nostaa varastomääriä. Man Investmentsin lyhyen-keskipitkän aikavälin ennuste on, että maakaasun hinta voi laskea alle 2 dollariin per miljoona BTU:ta.
Kysynnän kasvu ei ole Manin mukaan vastannut kohonnutta tarjontamäärää. Pitkällä aikavälillä monet tekijät puhuvat sen puolesta, että maakaasun tärkeys kasvaa. Esimerkiksi Yhdysvalloissa presidentti Obama otti juuri voimakkaasti kantaa maakaasun puolesta, ja myös Euroopassa trendi suosii vaihtoehtoisia polttoaineita. Maakaasulla on myös vähäisten infrastruktuuritarpeidensa suhteellinen etu esimerkiksi sähköautoihin verrattuna.
Alkuperäinen teksti luettavissa kokonaan alla:
Natural Gas Prices: How Low Can They Go?
Looking at US natural gas one can see that prices have come down considerably over the past three to four years and you might expect them to finally have reached a floor; however, unusually warm temperatures and abundant supply will put further pressure on prices. The firm production growth since 2008 is likely to continue into 2012 and potentially drive up inventory levels. In the short to mid-term, we believe prices for natural gas could fall below $2 per million BTUs.
The strong growth was largely driven by increases in shale gas production over the past year. Demand for the same period only rose moderately though. In the near future production should still expand despite a slowdown in new drilling activities and keep the market oversupplied. At the same time the US has experienced one of the warmest winters in the past 60 years, which allowed natural gas inventories to swell to record levels.
Over the long term there are a number of factors that support the case that the importance and relevance of natural gas should increase. President Obama in his State of the Union speech has just recently taken a strong stand for a increased focus on natural gas in the US. “We have a supply of natural gas that can last America nearly 100 years, and my administration will take every possible action to safely develop this energy”, he said. One big advantage of natural gas is the fact that the distribution infrastructure is already there. Gas stations merely need to add a natural gas pump and off they go. We believe this gives natural gas an important comparative advantage when evaluating other alternatives such as electricity powered cars, where the whole infrastructure would have to be built up from scratch.
Ratchets
Storage providers place so-called “ratchets” in place to protect their fields. Ratchets are contractual obligations that require storage users to draw down their gas to a certain percentage volume by the end of withdrawal season in March. It is very likely that these ratchets could force a significant amount of gas from the inventory, as otherwise penalty fees may apply to the users. The flushing out of excess gas into certain local markets should result in lower cash prices in those regions.
Production growth
The US domestic marketed production for 2011 outran demand by far. At the beginning of February some producers announced to reduce gas rig counts in the US. For prices to start rising again though, further production cuts would be needed. Another five or six producers would need to cut rigs on a similar scale; however history shows that the likelihood of this happening is not very high.
For further information please go to www.maninvestments.com or contact:
Marc Duckeck
Communications, Man Tel. +41 (0) 55 417 62 77
About Man
Man is a world-leading alternative investment management business. It has expertise in a wide range of liquid investment styles including managed futures, equity, credit and convertibles, emerging markets, global macro and multi-manager, combined with powerful product structuring, distribution and client service capabilities. As at 31 December 2011, Man managed $58.4 billion. The original business was founded in 1783. Today, Man Group plc is listed on the London Stock Exchange and is a member of the FTSE 100 Index, with a market capitalisation of around £2.5 billion.
Man is a member of the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index and the FTSE4Good Index. Man also supports many awards, charities and initiatives around the world, including sponsorship of the Man Booker literary prizes. Further information can be found at www.mangroupplc.com