What Are the Chances of Japanese Horses Winning at the 2024 Hong Kong International Races? - BettingGuide
December 4, 2024—An analysis of overseas bookmaker odds reveals that Japanese racehorses are expected to perform strongly in the Hong Kong International Races, taking place at Sha Tin Racecourse on December 8, 2024.
Based on the Hong Kong International Races odds as of December 4, 2024, we will explain the winning probabilities of Japanese horses in each race below.
Hong Kong Vase
In the Hong Kong Vase (G1, 2400m), two horses from Japan, Stellenbosch and Pradaria, are set to compete. Stellenbosch has odds that are closely matched with Australia’s Without A Fight, both having a winning percentage of 22.22%. These two are likely to engage in an intense battle for the title. Pradaria is predicted to have odds of 9.00 and a winning probability of 11.11%, ranking her fifth in terms of winning odds.
Hong Kong Sprint
In the Hong Kong Sprint (G1, 1200m), three Japanese horses are scheduled to compete: Toshin Macao, Lugal, and Satono Reve. In this race, Hong Kong’s Ka Ying Rising is drawing significant attention, with odds of 1.29 and an overwhelming winning chance of 77.78%. In contrast, both Lugal and Toshin Macao have winning probabilities of 6.67%, while Satono Reve stands at 4.76%. There is a significant disparity between the leading contender and the other competitors, but it remains to be seen how the Japanese horses will perform.
Hong Kong Mile
In the Hong Kong Mile (G1, 1600m), two Japanese horses, Soul Rush and Jantar Mantar, will be competing. Soul Rush is predicted to have odds of 4.00 and a winning probability of 22.22%, making him a strong contender for victory. Jantar Mantar is also expected to do well, with odds of 6.00 and a winning probability of 16.67%, placing him third in expectations.
Hong Kong Cup
Finally, in the Hong Kong Cup (G1, 2000m), Liberty Island and Tastiera will represent Japan. Liberty Island has odds of 6.00, with a winning probability of 16.67%, while Tastiera has odds of 13.00, with a 7.69% chance of winning. The standout horse is Hong Kong’s Romantic Warrior, boasting a 66.67% winning probability.
Summary
Overall, the potential for Japanese horses, particularly in the Hong Kong Vase and Hong Kong Mile, is high. However, competition from strong local entrants is expected throughout. This year's races will present an urgent challenge for Japanese thoroughbreds to enhance their international racing reputation.
How Winning Probabilities are Calculated
Winning probabilities can be calculated based on odds as follows:
Probability = 100 ÷ Decimal Odds
Example: If Stellenbosch’s odds are 4.5...
- Winning probability = 100 ÷ 4.5 = 22.22% (rounded to the nearest third decimal)
Source: What are Odds? A Simple Explanation of Bookmaker Odds!
Mizuki Ikeda
Editor at BettingGuide
mizuki@bettingguide.com
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