Inventing the future is the best way to predict it...

Inventing the future is the best way to predict it... Ian Pearson, futurologist at BTexact Technologies makes his top 25 predictions for the future. Ian Pearson is the long-range radar for BTexact Technologies, BT's advanced research and technology business. He searches years ahead for new technologies and events that might impact on the way businesses and society work. Among the things he's looking for are technologies and applications that may require businesses and individuals to rethink their vision of the future and how they currently operate. BTexact Technologies' develops and implements technology for a range of industries. The ability to look far ahead is key to BTexact's ability to make 'best guess' decisions on what its customers and society in general will want in order to guide the direction of research and technology investment. The future is hard to predict. Technology development is always accelerating and an increasing number of new fields is being created every year. Ian's top 25 predictions are: · 2002 - use of talking-head technology for video conferencing · 2002 - intelligent cats' eyes in the road with integrated speed cameras · 2002 - smart clothes that alter their thermal properties · 2003 - kitchen food tester that identifies presence of food bugs · 2003 - notebook computer screen with contrast as good as paper · · 2003 - avatar cosmetic surgery (avatar is 360 degree images based on photography) · 2003 - air mouse and air typing · 2003 - use of passive picocell (a proprietary technology that converts optic signals into wireless and vice-versa without needing a local power supply. The device generates/receives radio signals in a protocol determined by the optic signals) · 2003 - home intranet · 2003 - video jewellery · 2003 - virtual retinal displays in glasses · 2004 - toys with network based intelligence · 2004 - instant electronic diagnosis of illness · 2004 - tactile sensors comparable to human sensation · 2004 - cellphone location used in traffic management systems · 2005 - widespread use of virtual reality in education and recreation · 2005 - clothes that collect and store solar power · 2006 - artificial electronic life · 2006 - first organism brought back from extinction · 2006 - emotionally sensitive toys and robots · 2007 - portable translation device for simple conversation · 2010 - Artificially intelligent (AI) entity 'robot' passes GSCE exams · 2010 - highest earning celebrity is synthetic · 2010 - anti-noise technology built into homes · 2010 - insect-like robots used in warfare Ian said: "What must be remembered by anyone preparing for the future is that technology change isn't very important in itself. What matters is what this change enables or destroys. "The intention of the timeline is to illustrate the potential lying ahead for beneficial technologies. Not all will be successful in the marketplace. Some won't ever be implemented at all, but as the rest come on stream, our lives will improve in many ways. Of course, the far future is much harder to imagine than the near future. One thing is certain in the distant future - the world will be a very different place." It is hard for many people to believe or accept some of the changes listed above when half of the world's people have yet to make their first phone call. The process will inevitably be slower in the developing world, but the path will be similar. Each new technology brings many benefits but could also have a price. Ian concludes: "We will have more variety of entertainment, better health, greater wealth, and probably better social well being. We will have more time saving devices and ultrasmart computers will do most of our admin, but the future world will offer so much more opportunity to be productively and socially busy that we will have even less free time than today! If we think of this as living life to the full rather than in terms of stress, then the future looks good." Ends Notes to editors BTexact Technologies timeline is produced to help alleviate uncertainty about the future. Paul McIlroy produced the first timeline in 1991 and it has been updated once every two or three years. This is the 5th edition, and the biggest yet. A new editor Ian Neild has joined Ian Pearson on this edition and brought a welcome freshness to the timeline. The timeline is produced mainly to give BTexact researchers and managers a view of what the operating environment is likely to contain at any future date, so that our products and services can be better targeted to the needs of the customer. Several sources of information are used for the timeline. The largest single source is the previous edition, where most of the entries are still in the future and still valid. We have only had to change a few of the dates, which we hope is an indication that we were guessing well. Many items from the last BTexact edition have happened on cue, and have therefore been removed, but many more new developments have come into view that weren't so obvious last time round. We obtain these new entries from industry journals and bulletins, scouring the Internet, chatting to experts - including those in BTexact , and some just by relaxing and thinking about the future. About BTexact Technologies Created in April 2001, BTexact Technologies offers expertise and experience in communications technology and e-business, backed by a team of over 3000 technologists and one of the world's largest communications research and development facilities. It's a new company, with a long history. As the centre of technical expertise for the BT Group, BTexact established a record of world-first achievement and of successful delivery of projects, large and small. It has also created an intellectual property portfolio of some 14,000 patents based on almost 2000 inventions. BTexact Technologies now also provides services to companies outside the BT Group. It is headquartered at Adastral Park, at one end of the Cambridge-2-Ipswich Hi Tech Corridor, and is a founder member of the Cambridge Network. BTexact has people based worldwide - including locations across the UK and in Asia, continental Europe, and North America. BTexact's employees include many who are world leaders in their specialist fields, working at the forefront of standards development and new technologies in areas including multimedia, IP and data networks, mobile communications, network design and management, and business applications. For more information about BTexact Technologies, please go to www.btexact.com Further information David Pincott, Pirate Communications, T: 0207 760 7052, Mob: 07866 261198 or email: david@piratecomms.com Justine Manché, Pirate Communications, T: 0207 760 7053, Mob: 07811 164724 or email: justine@piratecomms.com ------------------------------------------------------------ This information was brought to you by Waymaker http://www.waymaker.net The following files are available for download: http://www.waymaker.net/bitonline/2002/01/17/20020117BIT00640/bit0002.doc http://www.waymaker.net/bitonline/2002/01/17/20020117BIT00640/bit0002.pdf