Finding a way offshore now a top priority, finds AJM Deloitte forecast report
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AJM Deloitte releases June 30, 2012 price forecast
Calgary, Alberta, Canada, July 3, 2012 – While there has been some recovery in the price of natural gas, crude oil dropped from the first quarter due to world economic influences, according to the latest quarterly price forecast released today by AJM Deloitte.
“In the March forecast, the political influence on the price of oil was Iran, with its nuclear program and threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz, which drove the price up. As that crisis has quieted down, though not gone away, it is now the European economy that is having a negative influence on the price of crude oil,” states Ralph Glass, Director, Energy valuation and operations at AJM Deloitte. “Coupled with the now over-supplied United States market, supplied by its domestic and Canadian imports, the price of crude oil has dipped significantly over the second quarter of 2012.”
Glass also indicates that on the North American side, there is a push in pipeline activity to access alternative markets in order to take advantage of the higher world commodity prices. “Be it LNG exports, raw crude oil or refined products, efforts to find ways to access markets beyond North America’s shores are in the works. That is where future growth is anticipated,” says Glass.
Highlights from AJM Deloitte’s June 30, 2012 Canadian domestic forecast predictions:
- Edmonton real price of C$88.00/bbl for the balance of 2012, returning to C$98.00/bbl in 2013 and continuing into the foreseeable future.
- WTI Cushing price for the rest of 2012 is anticipated to average US$90.00/bbl then hold at US$100.00/bbl for 2013 and beyond.
- On the international commodity markets, AJM Deloitte forecasts the Brent spot price will continue to receive a premium in comparison to US prices until an alternative market for North America’s crude oil, especially for Canada’s oil-sands volumes, is found.
- In natural gas, AJM Deloitte’s forecast is unchanged from the prior forecast, with the Alberta AECO average price at C$2.30/Mcf in real terms for 2012, increasing to C$3.20/Mcf in 2013, and growing to C$6.20/Mcf by 2021.
- NYMEX natural gas for 2012 is forecast at US$2.80/Mcf in real terms and rising to US$6.50/Mcf by 2021.
- International LPG prices are forecast to continue to be higher than North America, with the British National Balanced Point (BNP) price over US$9.00/Mcf and Asian markets seeing prices over US$12.00/Mcf.
Read AJM Deloitte’s complete oil and gas price forecast dated June 30, 2012.
AJM Deloitte is an energy and resource advisory practice, fully integrated with Deloitte’s existing professional services and offering reservoir engineering and geological consulting services including: corporate evaluations; acquisition and divestitures; reservoir studies and simulations; and advisory services.
For media information or interviews:
Ralph Glass
AJM Deloitte
Phone: 403-648-3225
Email: raglass@deloitte.ca
Kathleen Halpen
Deloitte
Phone: 403-267-0694
Email: khalpen@deloitte.ca
Jeannie Tsang
Deloitte
Phone: 416-643-8084
Email : jeatsang@deloitte.ca
About Deloitte
Deloitte, one of Canada's leading professional services firms, provides audit, tax, consulting, and financial advisory services through more than 8,000 people in 56 offices. Deloitte operates in Québec as Samson Bélair/Deloitte & Touche s.e.n.c.r.l. Deloitte & Touche LLP, an Ontario Limited Liability Partnership, is the Canadian member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited. Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms.
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