Vator Securities: When genomics and proteomics converge, Immunovia will probably be snatched up

In addition to the usual comments you as the reader would expect from us in an update report post capital raise and presentation of long-term penetration target, we went further and asked ourselves: What is going to happen beyond the success of Immunovia’s first launch of IMMray PanCan-d? And here is what we believe is going to happen to proteomics-based (Immunovia) and genomics-based (e.g. Exact Sciences, Grail, Guardant) technologies in cancer diagnostics:

  • Proteomics eat Genomics for breakfast if the topic is VERY early detection
  • There will be no single-tech winners
  • Winner-take-all tactics will include a combination of both, building an “Appstore” of different techs answering to different clinical needs
  • The resourceful US players, advanced in genomics-based tech, are far behind in proteomics-based tech. Immunovia is an apparent acquisition target by being at the forefront in the field and first to the US market, with competition likely several years behind.

By being at the forefront of proteomics-based technology, nearing launch of the first to market, outstandingly accurate blood-based test for early detection of pancreatic cancer, we see Immunovia as an apparent strategic target for acquisition. This is most likely to occur after successful launch of the pancreatic test, with reimbursement in place, commercial traction and clinical integration demonstrated. When Immunovia successfully executes on this plan, the achievement would serve as a clear validation of the company’s platform technology and give leverage to the pipeline. In other words, it would position Immunovia for a US acquirer aiming to establish itself as a leading provider of oncology diagnostics.

We maintain the Outperform rating and raise the target price to 300 SEK per share, corresponding to an equity value of SEK 6.8 bn non-diluted, derived from a DCF valuation of the opportunity in pancreatic cancer. Our valuation considers some of the main risk, i.e. time to commercial adoption, as it is based on a fairly cautious revenue ramp-up prior to gradual reimbursement unlocking 2023-2024, followed by a trajectory in accordance with the communicated long-term market penetration target. The pipeline programs in lung cancer and rheumatoid arthritis provide further upside potential.

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About Us

Immunovia AB was founded in 2007 by investigators from the Department of Immunotechnology at Lund University and CREATE Health, the Center for Translational Cancer Research in Lund, Sweden. Immunovia’s strategy is to decipher the wealth of information in blood and translate it into clinically useful tools to diagnose complex diseases such as cancer, earlier and more accurately than previously possible. Immunovia´s core technology platform, IMMray™, is based on antibody biomarker microarray analysis. The company is now performing clinical validation studies for the commercialization of IMMray™ PanCan-d that could be the first blood based test for early diagnosis of pancreatic cancer. In the beginning of 2016, the company started a program focused on autoimmune diseases diagnosis, prognosis and therapy monitoring. The first test from this program, IMMray™ SLE-d, is a biomarker signature derived for differential diagnosis of lupus, now undergoing evaluation and validation. (Source: Immunovia’s shares (IMMNOV) are listed on Nasdaq First North in Stockholm and Wildeco is the company’s Certified Adviser. For more information, please visit


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