Vator Securities: When genomics and proteomics converge, Immunovia will probably be snatched up
In addition to the usual comments you as the reader would expect from us in an update report post capital raise and presentation of long-term penetration target, we went further and asked ourselves: What is going to happen beyond the success of Immunovia’s first launch of IMMray PanCan-d? And here is what we believe is going to happen to proteomics-based (Immunovia) and genomics-based (e.g. Exact Sciences, Grail, Guardant) technologies in cancer diagnostics:
- Proteomics eat Genomics for breakfast if the topic is VERY early detection
- There will be no single-tech winners
- Winner-take-all tactics will include a combination of both, building an “Appstore” of different techs answering to different clinical needs
- The resourceful US players, advanced in genomics-based tech, are far behind in proteomics-based tech. Immunovia is an apparent acquisition target by being at the forefront in the field and first to the US market, with competition likely several years behind.
By being at the forefront of proteomics-based technology, nearing launch of the first to market, outstandingly accurate blood-based test for early detection of pancreatic cancer, we see Immunovia as an apparent strategic target for acquisition. This is most likely to occur after successful launch of the pancreatic test, with reimbursement in place, commercial traction and clinical integration demonstrated. When Immunovia successfully executes on this plan, the achievement would serve as a clear validation of the company’s platform technology and give leverage to the pipeline. In other words, it would position Immunovia for a US acquirer aiming to establish itself as a leading provider of oncology diagnostics.
We maintain the Outperform rating and raise the target price to 300 SEK per share, corresponding to an equity value of SEK 6.8 bn non-diluted, derived from a DCF valuation of the opportunity in pancreatic cancer. Our valuation considers some of the main risk, i.e. time to commercial adoption, as it is based on a fairly cautious revenue ramp-up prior to gradual reimbursement unlocking 2023-2024, followed by a trajectory in accordance with the communicated long-term market penetration target. The pipeline programs in lung cancer and rheumatoid arthritis provide further upside potential.
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