IBD/TIPP Final Poll Result: Obama +1.6%

LOS ANGELES ( November 6, 2012) — The final IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll finds President Obama holds a slim lead, 50.3% to 48.7%, with just 1% preferring other candidates. The margin of error is +/- 3.7%.

Governor Romney runs behind in all age groups, except for those over 65, in which he has a 53%-46% edge. The results also show a pronounced gender split, with men favoring Governor Romney 54%-46%, while women preferred President Obama 55%-44%.

Even though Governor Romney holds a 6-point lead among independents, President Obama's 86-point advantage among Democrats – who outnumber Republicans in registration – gives him the lead. But even among women there was a gap, with married women handing Romney a 6-point advantage, while unmarried women opted for Obama by a substantial 29 points.

In addition, the poll also found:

  • For the first time since IBD/TIPP started the poll, President Obama garners 40% of the white vote. That's a critical threshold he had to hit in order to make a win possible.
  • Governor Romney performs better with Conservatives than McCain did in 2008.
  • Catholic voters are breaking for Romney. He now holds a 17-point lead among this group, up from just 1 point in the Oct. 28 poll

Due to Hurricane Sandy, the IBD/TIPP tracking poll was suspended on Oct. 28 and resumed on Nov. 3. The final results are based on data collected from Saturday to Monday.

For full results, please visit www.investors.com/poll.

Kathleen Sherman


The IBD TIPP presidential tracking poll was the most accurate pollster in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections.  The poll is conducted by phone and has a sample size of approximately 1,000 people.

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is the earliest take on consumer confidence each month and predicts with 80% reliability monthly changes in sentiment in well-known polls by The Conference Board and the University of Michigan. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is based on a survey of 900-plus adults chosen at random nationwide. The poll is generally conducted in the first week of the month.

For more information, go to www.tipponline.com. To license the IBD/TIPP Poll, please contact: Licensing@Investors.com


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IBD/TIPP Poll © 2012 Investor’s Business Daily Inc. and TechnoMetrica Inc.

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