Consumers expect Swedish economy to worsen over the next year

The Economic Tendency Indicator fell from 111.2 in September to 108.0 in October but still points to a stronger situation in the economy than normal. All sectors contributed to the fall.

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry dropped for a second month but still shows a much stronger situation than normal. The decrease was due to weaker signals from producers of consumer and intermediate goods. The signals from producers of durable goods, on the other hand, were somewhat stronger than in September.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry fell from 106.2 to 103.3 in October. Both questions – current order books and employment plans for the next three months – contributed to the decline.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade, which climbed strongly in September, fell back to a level just above the historical average. The indicator is being kept above the historical average by food retailers. Confidence in the other parts of the sector – the motor trade and specialist retailers – is below normal levels.

The confidence indicator for the service sector also decreased after a relatively strong increase in September. This was due primarily to less positive expectations for demand in the coming months.

The consumer confidence indicator dropped 4.0 points in October to a level close to the historical average, mainly as a result of more consumers expecting the Swedish economy to deteriorate over the next 12 months.

Indicators October Previous month
Economic Tendency Indicator 108 111.2
Total industry 106.3 109.7
Manufacturing 115.4 117.3
Building and civil engineering 103.3 106.2
Retail Trade 101.2 107.6
Private service sectors 102.7 105.2
Consumer 99.5 103.5
Macroindex 97.9 101
Microindex 99.2 102.3
Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean excluding extreme values (percent) 3.2 3.5

Access the statistical database on www.konj.se/english

For further information:

Maria Billstam, Head of Economic Tendency Surveys +46 8 453 59 04

Sarah Hegardt Grant, Head of Communications +46 8 453 59 11

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