Economic Tendency Indicator falls for a second month
The Economic Tendency Indicator dropped almost two points from 93.8 in April to 91.9 in May and indicates that growth in the Swedish economy is much weaker than normal. The decrease was due primarily to falls in the confidence indicators for manufacturing and consumers. The indicators for the retail trade and the private service sector did not change notably in May, and there was a rise in the indicator for the building and civil engineering industry.
The confidence indicator for the business sector edged down
The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry fell six points from April to May and is now ten points below the historic average. New orders have generally been weak, and dissatisfaction with order books is considerably greater than normal. Output volumes have increased slightly, while employment has fallen. The industry anticipates further reductions in the workforce and moderate growth in output over the next few months.
The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry gained ten points in May but is still well below the historic average. New orders, construction output and employment have all declined in recent months. New orders are expected to pick up in the coming months, and output is expected to be largely unchanged. However, construction firms expect employment to continue to fall. They do not anticipate any further price reductions.
The confidence indicator for the retail trade dropped two points in May to 13 points below the historic average. As before, there are considerable variations between segments. The food trade has performed the strongest, while both the motor vehicle trade and the specialist retail trade report lower sales. The food trade is the most optimistic about the next few months, but the specialist retail trade and the motor vehicle trade also anticipate higher volumes.
The confidence indicator for the private service sector rose one point in May and is now nine points below the historic average. Demand has picked up slightly, while employment has continued to fall. Service firms expect demand to continue to climb over the next few months, while employment is expected to be largely unchanged. However, some segments – primarily restaurants, technical consultants and architects – have much more expansive employment plans.
Consumer confidence in the economy fell back in May
The Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) fell 1.6 points in May from 5.2 to 3.6, taking it back to just below the historic average. The decrease was due to a more negative assessment of the Swedish economy, as consumers’ view of their personal finances was unchanged and remains more positive than normal.
Please note! In June there will be a new way of calculating the confidence indicators in the Economic Tendency Survey. Read more on www.konj.se/newindicators
For further information:
Roger Knudsen, Head of Economic Tendency Surveys +46 8 453 59 06
Maria Billstam, Assignments, methods and samples +46 8 453 59 04
Sarah Hegardt Grant, Head of communications +46 8 453 59 11
Tags: