Economic Tendency Indicator recovered in August
The Economic Tendency Indicator largely recovered last month’s fall, rising 1.7 points in August. However, it remains just under three points below the historic average, indicating that growth in the Swedish economy is weaker than normal. The private service sector was the main sector of the economy to make a positive contribution this month. Households made an almost neutral contribution.
Employment forecast to fall somewhat in next few months
The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry fell six points in August and is now five points below the historic average. New orders from the domestic market fell, while new export orders and output volume remained almost unchanged. Employment fell somewhat and plans for the next few months indicate further cuts. Output volume is forecast to increase somewhat.
The confidence indicator for the construction industry rose a couple of points in August, but remains considerably below the historic average. New orders, construction output and employment declined and tender prices were reduced. Nearly half of firms state insufficient demand as the main obstacle to business activities. Construction firms forecast largely unchanged new orders and construction output for the next few months.
The confidence indicator for the retail trade fell one point in August and remains slightly below the historic average. As previously, there are major differences between the various sectors. The food trade experienced by far the strongest growth, while the motor vehicle trade saw the weakest growth and continues to report declining sales figures. The food trade and the specialist retail trade are the most optimistic about the next few months. The motor vehicle trade forecasts largely unchanged volumes.
The confidence indicator for the private service sector rose 14 points in August, recovering the previous month’s fall. However, it remains below the historic average. Demand growth has been moderate over the past few months and employment has remained unchanged. Service firms forecast rising demand for the next few months, while employment is expected to remain almost unchanged.
Households expect higher home loan rate
The Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) fell marginally in August and is just above the historic average. The Macro Index, which measures consumer confidence in the Swedish economy, fell around one point in August and is considerably below the historic average. The Micro Index, which reflects consumer confidence in personal finances, rose one point and is above the historic average. This increase is mainly due to more positive household attitudes to consumer durable purchases.
For further information:
Roger Knudsen, Head of Economic Tendency Surveys +46-8-453 59 06
Sarah Hegardt Grant, Head of communications +46-8-453 59 11, +46-70-267 80 41