Industry looking up, consumers more downbeat

The Economic Tendency Indicator rose 2.8 points from 101.5 in September to 104.3 in October, its highest level for nine months. All of the business confidence indicators improved – manufacturing by 4.4 points, private services by 3.4 points, building and civil engineering by 1.5 points and retail by 0.2 points – and all are above the historical average. The consumer confidence indicator, on the other hand, fell 4.7 points in October to 2 points below the historical average.

Improvements in all sectors

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry gained 4.4 points in October and is now 7.7 points above the historical average. Only one of the three questions included in the indicator contributed to the increase: the assessment of current stocks of finished goods was significantly more positive, while both the assessment of current order books and production plans were unchanged.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry rose 1.5 points in October and is now almost 7 points above the historical average. The assessment of current order books was more positive, while employment plans were unchanged.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade gained 0.2 points in October and is now almost 8 points above the historical average. Only one of the three questions included in the indicator contributed to the increase: the assessment of stocks of goods was more positive, while both historical sales and expectations for sales in the coming months were revised down.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector rose 3.4 points in October and is now back above the historical average. All three questions included in the indicator contributed to the increase: historical demand was stronger, firms' assessment of how their operations have developed was more positive, and expectations of demand in the coming months were higher.

Consumers more pessimistic about the outlook

The consumer confidence indicator fell no fewer than 4.7 points in October and is now 2 points below the historical average. Four of the five questions included in the indicator contributed to the decrease: above all, expectations of personal finances and the Swedish economy over the next 12 months were significantly more pessimistic, but consumers were also less positive about the present state of the economy and whether now is a good time to make major purchases. Only the assessment of the present state of their personal finances was more positive.

For further information:

Roger Knudsen, Head of Economic Tendency Surveys +46 8 453 59 06
Maria Billstam, Assignments, methods and samples +46 8 453 59 06
Sarah Hegardt Grant, Head of Communications +46 8 453 59 11

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