Nearly all confidence indicators fell somewhat in September
The Economic Tendency Indicator fell just over one point in September from 96.9 to 95.8, indicating that growth in the Swedish economy is currently weaker than normal. The manufacturing industry, the construction industry and the private service sector were the sectors of the economy that made a negative contribution this month. Only the retail trade made a positive contribution. Households made a negative contribution.
Employment has fallen and firms forecast further cuts
The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry fell one point in September compared with the previous month and is now six points below the historic average. New export orders remained unchanged, while new orders from the domestic market continued to decline. Output volume remained unchanged, while employment fell. The industry forecasts further staff cuts and unchanged output volume for the next few months.
Construction activity has weakened considerably over the past few months. In September the confidence indicator fell a further couple of points and is now around 30 points lower than in April this year. New orders, construction output and employment have declined over the past few months and construction firms are pessimistic about the next few months. Firms forecast a continued decline in activity and further price reductions.
The confidence indicator for the retail trade rose five points in September and is currently only a couple of points below the historic average. However, there are major differences between the various sectors, as previously. The food trade experienced by far the strongest growth, while the motor vehicle trade reported reduced sales. The food trade and the specialist retail trade are the most optimistic about the next few months, forecasting appreciable sales growth, while the motor vehicle trade forecasts a largely unchanged sales volume.
The confidence indicator for the private service sector fell three points in September and is now nine points below the historic average. Demand growth has been weak over the past few months and employment is reported to have fallen somewhat. Service firms forecast continued increased demand for the next few months, while employment is expected to be largely unchanged. Technical consultants have the most expansive employment plans.
Households pessimistic about labour market situation
The Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) fell just over three points in September from 5.4 to 2.0 and is thus three points below the historic average, indicating that consumer confidence in the economy is slightly more negative than normal. Both the Micro Index and the Macro Index fell around three points in September. The Micro Index is on a par with the historic average, while the Macro Index is below the average.
For further information:
Roger Knudsen, Head of Economic Tendency Surveys +46-8-453 59 06
Sarah Hegardt Grant, Head of communications +46-8-453 59 11, +46-70-267 80 41
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