Strong rise in retail and service indicators

The Economic Tendency Indicator changed only marginally in September, edging up to 111.7 from 111.6 in August, and continues to reflect much stronger sentiment than normal in the Swedish economy.

Only the confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry declined in September, falling 4.5 points, due primarily to stocks of finished goods being considered slightly too high rather than slightly too low. The decrease in satisfaction with stock levels was confined mainly to consumer goods producers, however, and the indicator continues to point to a very strong situation in the industry.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry did not change appreciably in September and remains above the historical average. Firms are as happy with their order books as before, and their recruitment plans again point to relatively strong employment growth.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade climbed for a second month, gaining 5 points in September, due partly to stronger signals about sales in recent months and partly to a greater share of firms reporting current stock levels as too low.

The confidence indicator for the service industry also climbed relatively strongly in September, from 101.3 to 106.0, its highest since December 2017. The improvement was broad-based, with all three questions and most segments making a positive contribution.

The Consumer Confidence Indicator climbed slightly further in September, improving for a fourth successive month. Among other things, consumers’ view of whether now is a good time to make major purchases was more positive.

Indicators September Previous month
Economic Tendency Indicator 111.7 111.6
Total industry 110.2 107
Manufacturing 117.5 122
Building and civil engineering 108.3 108.1
Retail Trade 107.5 102
Private service sectors 106 101.3
Consumer 103.6 103.1
Macroindex 101.2 100.3
Microindex 102.3 102.4
Expected inflation 12 months ahead, mean excluding extreme values (percent) 3.5 3.4

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For further information:

Maria Billstam, Head of Economic Tendency Surveys +46 8 453 59 04

Sarah Hegardt Grant, Head of Communications +46 8 453 59 11