Tendency indicator up more than 20 points in just over a year
The Economic Tendency Indicator rose a further 1.5 points from 106.3 in December to 107.8 in January, its highest level since June 2011. The indicator has gained more than 20 points since bottoming out in November 2012. The indicators for the manufacturing industry, retail trade and private service sector all increased – the retail indicator by almost 4 points – while those for the building and civil engineering industry and consumer confidence fell slightly. All of the confidence indicators are well above their historical averages, except that for the building and civil engineering industry, which is now almost exactly in line with the historical average.
Employment plans revised up
The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry gained 1.2 points in January and is now more than 8 points above the historical average. Two of the three questions included in the indicator contributed to the increase: production plans were revised up, and the assessment of current stocks of finished goods was a shade more positive, but the assessment of current order books was somewhat more negative.
The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry fell 1.2 points in January and is now 0.1 points below the historical average. Both of the questions included in the indicator made a negative contribution: employment plans were revised down, and the assessment of current order books was slightly more negative than in December.
The confidence indicator for the retail trade gained 3.8 points in January and is now almost 8 points above the historical average. All three questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: historical sales were better than in December, the assessment of stocks of goods was less negative, and expectations for sales in the coming months were more optimistic.
The confidence indicator for the private service sector gained 2.6 points in January and is now slightly more than 8 points above the historical average. Two of the three questions included in the indicator made a positive contribution: both historical demand and firms’ assessment of how their operations have developed were better than in December, but expectations for demand in the coming months were unchanged.
Households expect lower inflation
The Consumer Confidence Indicator fell 1.6 points from 104.8 in December to 103.2 in January. Four of the five questions included in the indicator made a negative contribution; only consumers’ view of the outlook for the Swedish economy over the next 12 months was more positive. Expectations for their personal finances were less optimistic, and their view of the current state of both the Swedish economy and their personal finances, as well as whether now is a good time to make major purchases, was less positive than in December.
For further information:
Roger Knudsen, Head of Economic Tendency Surveys +46-8-453 59 06
Sarah Hegardt Grant, Head of communications +46-8-453 59 11
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