The downward trend was broken in December and the Economic Tendency Indicator rose
The Economic Tendency Indicator recovered in December, rising nearly four points from 86.0 in November to 89.7. However, it remains over 10 points below the historic average, indicating that growth in the Swedish economy is considerably weaker than normal. Manufacturing industry and the private service sector made a positive contribution this month, while the results from the construction industry and the retail trade were neutral. The Consumer Confidence Indicator, however, continued to decline in December.
The downward trend of economic indicators was broken
The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry rose two points in December on the previous month and is now 10 points below the historic average. The rise is due to a less negative opinion of the inventory situation than in November. However, new orders, output and employment declined further. Employment plans are pessimistic, with half of industrial firms forecasting staff cuts. Slightly lower output is also forecast for the next few months.
The confidence indicator for the construction industry remained unchanged between November and December and is considerably below the historic average. New orders, construction output and employment declined and tender prices were reduced. Construction firms are not as pessimistic as previously and expectations indicate that new orders and construction output will remain unchanged. However, employment plans indicate continued staff cuts.
The confidence indicator for the retail trade remained unchanged in December on the previous month and is 10 points below the historic average. Major differences remain between the various sectors of the retail trade. The food trade experienced the strongest growth, while the motor vehicle trade experienced the weakest growth. The food trade is the most optimistic about the next few months, but the specialist retail trade also forecasts increased sales. The motor vehicle trade forecasts largely unchanged volumes.
The confidence indicator for the private service sector rose four points in December, but remains considerably below the historic average. Demand and employment both declined, while dissatisfaction with the order volume is larger than normal. Service firms forecast some increase in demand for the coming months, while employment is expected to remain largely unchanged.
Households have not been more pessimistic about unemployment since 2009
The Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) fell nearly five points in December from -7.3 to -12.2 and is now over 17 points below the historic average, indicating that consumer confidence in the economy is appreciably more negative than normal. The Macro Index, which measures consumer confidence in the Swedish economy, fell over seven points this month and is considerably below the average. The Micro Index, which reflects consumer confidence in personal finances, fell over four points and is now nearly six points below the historic average.
For further information:
Roger Knudsen, Head of Economic Tendency Surveys +46-8-453 59 06
Sarah Hegardt Grant, Head of communications +46-8-453 59 11
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