The light comes from the consumers

The Economic Tendency Indicator climbed 0.8 points from 94.6 in June to 95.4 in July. It is now 4.6 points below the historic average and indicates that growth in the Swedish economy is still weaker than normal. The building and civil engineering industry, the retail trade and the private service sector made a positive contribution this month, while the indicator for the manufacturing industry edged down. The Consumer Confidence Indicator gained almost 2 points in July to a few tenths above the historic average.

Further weak growth in industry

The confidence indicator for the manufacturing industry fell 0.5 points in July and is now slightly more than 6 points below the historic average. Both new orders and production volumes were almost unchanged in the second quarter, and firms’ view of their order books did not change notably. Employment, however, has continued to decline, and firms anticipate further cutbacks. New orders and production volumes are expected to improve somewhat in the third quarter.

The confidence indicator for the building and civil engineering industry gained 1.6 points in July and is now slightly more than 4.5 points below the historic average. New orders were unchanged in the second quarter, but both output and employment decreased. The sector does not anticipate any improvement in the third quarter and forecasts unchanged orders and output and a further decline in employment.

The confidence indicator for the retail trade gained 2 points in July and is now just 0.7 points below the historic average. The food trade is reporting continued sales growth, while both the motor trade and the specialist retail trade are reporting unchanged volumes. The retail trade is more optimistic than it has been for some time and anticipates significant sales growth in the third quarter.

The confidence indicator for the private service sector rose 1.2 points in July and is now slightly less than two points below the historic average. Demand picked up in the second quarter after being largely unchanged for four quarters. Employment has continued to decline, but firms expect it to stabilise in the third quarter, and demand is expected to improve further.

Consumers more upbeat about both personal finances and Swedish economy

The Consumer Confidence Indicator gained 1.9 points in July and is now 0.3 points above the historic average. Consumers' assessment of both their own personal finances and the Swedish economy was more positive, with the Micro Index climbing 3.1 points and the Macro Index 1.7 points.

For further information:

Roger Knudsen, Head of Economic Tendency Surveys +46-8-453 59 06
Maria Billstam, Assignments, methods and samples +46 8 453 59 04
Henrik Hellström, Communications officer +46-8-453 59 67

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