McKinsey: Can Finland make it in time? In global growth arenas, the winners are defined now
A new McKinsey Global Institute report identifies space, gaming, and biotechnology as the arenas where Finnish companies have the most potential for a global breakthrough. That can only happen if capital markets move fast enough before competitive advantage locks elsewhere.
Press release 27 April 2026 09:00 EEST
- Global economic growth is concentrating in 18 technology-intensive industries, whose combined revenues could reach $29–48 trillion by 2040.
- Since 2022, the market capitalisation of these industries has grown roughly four times faster than that of other industries.
- US and Chinese companies account for 90 % of market value in these industries. Europe's share is a third of what the size of its economy would suggest.
- Finland has a proven historical track record of producing global winners from technology inflection points. Its strongest opportunities to reach the top are in space, gaming, and non-medical biotechnology.
Competition in global high-growth arenas is escalatory by nature, since platform effects and scale advantages reward the winners. In its new report, The Race Takes Off in the Next Big Arenas of Competition, McKinsey Global Institute recognized nine omniscalers: major global companies that are spending heavily and spanning multiple arenas. They generated over $700 billion in operating cash flow in 2025 and invested over $800 billion in the same year. The gap between leaders and followers is decisive — and this applies to countries just as much as to companies.
"Finland has the potential to be among the global leaders in several technology-intensive industries. Succeeding in even one would be a major win for our national economy. It requires getting the funding, product development, internationalization, and speed to market right," says Tapio Melgin, partner at McKinsey.
Since the 1970s, Finland's periods of rapid economic growth have followed the same pattern: a Finnish company rises to the forefront of an ongoing technology shift and pulls the broader economy along. Kone did this in the machinery industry in the 1980s, Nokia in mobile phones in the 2000s, and Supercell in mobile gaming in the 2010s. Each time, the impact radiated across the economy. Since the digitalization wave, Finland has been searching for its next growth engine.
The best conditions for success in three fields
The report's Finland analysis identifies three global growth industries that are still in the early stages of their development curve and where Finland has promising positioning:
- Space technology. Finland has over 100 fast-growing dual-use companies, and the defence sector provides both demand and funding. ICEYE has already risen to the global forefront in satellite imaging.
- Video games. Around 270 active game studios and a unique ecosystem built by Supercell, Rovio, and Remedy. Metacore is an example of the next generation of these players.
- Non-medical biotechnology. A strong research base at VTT and Finnish universities. Solar Foods, Onego Bio, and Nanoform demonstrate that commercialization is already under way.
In addition, Finnish companies have opportunities in modular construction, future air mobility, robotics, nuclear fission, and cybersecurity.
Beyond the 18 arenas of competition, there are emerging technology domains where Finnish companies have the potential to take leading positions. These include quantum technology and sustainable fuels. Quantum technology, in particular, could become a significant opportunity by the 2040s.
However, the window to secure a leading position can close quickly. The report shows that large investment waves aligned with technological inflection points accelerate the entrenchment of market positions. Such a wave is currently underway: the seven largest technology companies invested a combined $750 billion in 2025 — more than 90 percent above 2022 levels. In more mature growth industries such as AI and cloud services, competitive positions have settled within 3–5 years. In space and biotechnology in particular, the technologies are still at a relatively early stage, giving Finland an excellent opportunity to rise to the front.
Funding is the bottleneck
Finland performs well in research and early-stage technology development, but without sufficient growth capital, companies cannot reach the scale needed to compete globally. The challenge is the same as across Europe more broadly: there is not enough capital for commercialization and scale-up.
"Finland has candidates in several arenas. The critical question is whether the next ICEYE or Oura receives sufficient funding early enough, and with a strong enough domestic base, or whether ownership and headquarters shift abroad before it has a chance to scale," Melgin tells.
About the report
The Race Takes Off in the Next Big Arenas of Competition is a 127-page report by the McKinsey Global Institute, updating the 2024 study on future arenas of competition. The analysis is based on data from 3,770 companies across 69 industries.
The Finnish perspective available upon request.
Press enquiries:
Linda Pynnönen
Communications Specialist
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linda_pynnonen@mckinsey.com
About McKinsey
McKinsey is a global management consulting firm committed to helping organisations create inclusive and sustainable growth. We operate in 140 cities and 70 countries. We work with clients across all sectors to solve complex problems and enable positive growth for our clients' stakeholders. Through new ways of working and new technology, we build capabilities that create long-term value for organisations now and in the future. mckinsey.com/fi
