Turks go cold on EU bid amid rising anti-Western sentiment, warns new report

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Turkey’s bid to join the European Union is close to “breaking point”, according to a major new independent report on the Muslim country, which is seen as critical to Western hopes of stabilising the turbulent Middle East region and combating the rise of militant Islam. The report warns that with major European powers such as France and Germany lining up against Turkish accession despite negotiations stretching back more than 20 years, the Turkish public feels “humiliated, manipulated and destitute”. The report also warns that Turkey faces an imminent Kurdish intifada, political instability and diplomatic failures. “EU-Turkey relations might reach a breaking point over the next five years,” declares Ziya Meral, a London-based Turkish researcher, writer, and a PhD candidate in political science at the University of Cambridge. Anti-EU sentiment in Turkey, which sees itself as a bridge between East and West and a potential power broker in the Middle East, is growing alarmingly. The Turkish public is likely to turn towards domestic politicians offering a nationalistic outlook and an “independent and proud” future for their country. His report, called Prospects for Turkey, was launched in London on Monday 20th September, and is the latest in a series of such in-depth country surveys published by the London-based, free-enterprise and pro-democracy think-tank Legatum Institute. The report rejects claims that under the dominant ruling party AKP, Turkey is evolving into an Islamist state. The quality of its analysis has been boosted this week by the AKP’s overwhelming victory in the country’s referendum on its plans for further constitutional reform. The key findings of this report include: • More than any other political party in Turkey, the AKP represents the reality of Turkey - a country that wants to be an independent global actor with a flourishing democracy and economy, while also striving to maintain its values and culture. • Eight years of AKP rule have not Islamised Turkey. The AKP has turned out to be one of the most pro-EU, pro-market economy, pro-human rights, and pro-democracy governments Turkey has ever had. • The AKP’s strong performance on economic and political issues has been tainted by intense clashes within the state structures and with opposition parties, and limited by the party’s own failures in fulfilling its promises and handling opposition. • Far from an inevitable point of contention, a proactive Turkey with a pragmatic foreign policy seeking to expand its economic and diplomatic ties in the Balkans, the Middle East, and Central Asia has so much to offer not only to an unstable region but also for the US and EU. •The outcome of the national elections in the summer of 2011, a possible large-scale Kurdish intifada, and potential fallout with key Western and Middle eastern countries due to Turkish engagement with previously shunned states, are key challenges awaiting it. • Turkey needs close support from the US and the EU to enable a stable maturation, just as the US and the EU need to keep Turkey as a close ally for their own economic and political interests. The report says: “It is clear that Turkey is on a healthy path of maturing and adapting to the realities of the 21st century. “The AKP government has been instrumental in unleashing this process of change. “With all of its faults and limitations, the AKP has proven to be a remarkable movement that is able to hold the realities of globalisation in harmony with conservative culture and belief. “Once again, this has proven that the deep democratisation and progressive reforms in Muslim-majority states have almost always happened through conservative but reformist governments that are able to reflect realities of their societies, not through seemingly secular or Western-ally authoritarian rulers. However, Mr Meral sees dangers ahead with the prospect of the AKP losing its lustre and Turkey switching to a more isolationist and nationalistic course. “ This would undo a host of positive developments in the country. After all, xenophobia and anti-US feelings continue to run high in the country.” ENDS About the Legatum Institute The Legatum Institute ("LI") is an independent policy, advocacy and advisory organisation. The Institute's mission is to research and promote the principles that drive the creation of global prosperity and the expansion of human liberty and wellbeing. For more information about the Legatum Institute, please visit www.li.com or contact Nick Wood of Media Intelligence Partners Ltd on 0203 008 8146 or 07889 617003 The Institute is part of the Legatum Group, a private global investment organization focused on investing in the international capital markets and the promotion of sustainable development. For more information about the Legatum Group, please visit www.Legatum.com.