US: Polymer resin market to grow 2.6% to 2012 say latest figures
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The report “United States Petrochemicals Report Q4 2011” polymer resins output growth was around 3.4% in 2010, following considerable declines in the previous two years, was below far lower than forecast and continues to lag behind trends in the overall economy. The rebound will moderate further in 2011 and 2012 and output may not return to pre-recession levels until 2012 at the earliest. We have raised our forecast for real GDP down in 2011 to 2.6% from 2.9%.
After a period of stagnation and decline, the improved cost position ofUSpetrochemicals bolstered by shale gas discoveries has prompted a flurry of interest in new cracker capacity. Growth in ethane availability paves the way for a potential cracker in the northeast, where the Marcellus shale reserves could support a world-scale plant, in addition to those recently announced by CP Chem and Dow Chemical. New crackers based on shale gas are unlikely to add significantly to exports in the medium- to long-term, but should help keep up PE exports and prevent a decline into import dependency. However, the development of petrochemicals facilities based on shale gas are some way off. It will take at least five years for a world-scale cracker to come on stream and plenty of work will need to be done to provide sufficient infrastructure.
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