"Generating Capacity and Demand Forecast 2012 - 2050" – new energy report
highlights the changing global marketplace for power generation plant and equipment
- steady decline in new build and asset base renewal activity will last until 2025
- next peak of demand will be on basis of asset base renewal not new build
A new report "Generating Capacity and Demand Forecast 2012 - 2050" just published by energy industry specialists StatPlan Energy highlights that the rapid development of more and more generating capacity in the energy market is not a given despite so much talk about renewables and new fossil fuel energy sources that can be processed in more environmentally friendly ways. The report makes a series of predictions:
1. Globally, the pace of power generation capacity development is currently slowing and will continue to do so until 2025.
2. As time goes on, the role of asset base renewal activity (ensuring existing capacity continues to produce, through replacement, retrofitting or upgrading) will increase to reflect peaks in the development of new capacity in the past that is now in need of attention if it is to continue to contribute.
3. Activity levels around the world are steadily changing. Europe and North America will continue to contribute substantially to the global total, as they always have, but China's contribution will reduce from its current inflated level until 2045, when it will again become the key contributor as today's new build becomes due for replacement. Other Asian countries (particularly those considered to be in "the next 11" after the BRIC countries) will become much more significant, fuelled by relatively rapid growth of their energy infrastructure and the need to meet the needs of rising populations with higher aspirations.
4. The shape of the industry going forward is reflected in how and when it has developed in the past. StatPlan considers the world divides into six broad segments:
| Nature of development curve | Examples | |
| Segment 1 | Long term capacity builders, now needing to better utilise existing, ageing resource. | Germany, USA, UK |
| Segment 2 | Countries that have grasped the nettle, but pace of development likely to ease in coming years | China |
| Segment 3 | Countries that have the economic growth, but have yet to gain sufficient momentum on capacity development | Other BRIC countries |
| Segment 4 | Late to the game, now adding capacity at speed | Vietnam, Indonesia |
| Segment 5 | Growing rapidly off low capacity levels, but even a doubling of capacity has little impact on the global picture | African developing countries |
| Segment 6 | Countries yet to make an economic breakthrough | Many |
The commercial opportunities in each of these segments will be very different and determine understanding where opportunities exist in the medium and long term future. Layered on this is the political world and the economic wherewithal.
The geographical distribution of demand GW, 1940 to 2050
Euan Blauvelt, report author and director of StatPlan Energy, said: "The meeting of demand for new generation capacity is not necessarily linear. It is in fact a cyclical market, proven by historical record, and, right now, at a global level, those that live off the development of generating capacity should realise we are in a period of steady decline in the pace of new build and asset base renewal activity that will last until 2025.
“A dangerous assumption was made in the 1980s, that if we (the manufacturers) build it, they (the market) will come to get it. That error cost jobs and even companies.
“When we reach our next peak of demand, the market will have changed and will be based on asset base renewal, not new build."
The report has implications for long term planners. Where to locate plant, where to focus long term building effort and what products and services to offer the market.
Details of how to purchase "Generating Capacity and Demand Forecast 2012 - 2050" can be found at www.statplanenergy.com. This report provides detailed assessment of the future of energy generation globally, regionally and by major country. A second new title, "The Electricity Markets Yearbook 2012" provides a detailed picture by country of generation, transmission and distribution and limited forecast information.
For further press information, contact: David Dower, Director, StatPlan Energy Research Limited. Office: +44 1404 831186 Mobile: +44 7919 403251. E-mail: d.dower@statplanenergyresearch.com
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