COP28 delivers a first-ever decision on fossil fuels, but loopholes may hinder progress
The agreement at COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels marks a historic milestone, reflecting the long-standing evidence presented by SEI and partner organizations. This evidence emphasizes the need for an equitable and planned phase-out of fossil fuels. However, several potential loopholes in the agreement might decelerate the transition. The agreement also made significant progress on a Loss and Damage Fund and set a global goal on adaptation.
The agreement to transition away from fossil fuels reflects the evidence presented in the 2023 Production Gap Report. Producing countries will now need to take decisive action to halt planned expansion of fossil fuel production and to instead start transitioning away.
“The call to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems is a significant acknowledgement that has been much needed for some time, but the outcome as a whole includes several conditions that may slow down the phase-out of fossil fuels. What really matters now is how countries choose to act on this outcome in their national policies,” commented Åsa Persson, Research Director and Deputy Director SEI.
Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) welcomes the advancements at COP28. These include the arrangements to launch a Loss and Damage Fund with an initial tranche of funding, new global targets to triple renewable energy capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements. The conference also set a global goal on adaptation, underscoring the importance of transboundary climate risks and the international cooperation required to address them, areas where SEI’s research has been instrumental.
The Global Stocktake outcome, a result of balancing strong interests, acknowledges the need for financial support to facilitate the transition away from fossil fuels.
“It calls for delivery of the $100 billion goal, reform to multilateral development banks, increased support for adaptation beyond current commitments, and the need to explore new innovative sources, such as taxation. But it does not deliver any new major commitments, as discussions remain underway on a new goal to be decided at COP29,” noted Katherine Browne, Research Fellow SEI.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and broader climate and development plans must now focus on accelerating the transition from fossil fuels, ramping up renewables and energy efficiency, and intensifying action on methane emissions. For developed countries, this also includes fulfilling climate finance commitments. SEI remains committed to supporting countries in their planning and implementation efforts, ensuring alignment with Paris Agreement targets and fostering development benefits, for example, via LeadIT and SEI’s Initiative on Integrated Climate and Development Planning.
The establishment of a global Loss and Damage Fund on the first day of COP28, with an initial USD 429 million in pledges, was a groundbreaking development. Since then, pledges to the fund have increased to over USD 655 million.
“The early pledges, despite falling short of needs, represent a remarkable step forward. The way forward is to start disseminating finance as quickly and urgently as possible, because we know that countries and communities are already facing impacts,” stated Zoha Shawoo, SEI US Scientist.
For further information, contact:
Åsa Persson, Research Director and Deputy Director SEI, asa.persson@sei.org
Katherine Browne, Research Fellow SEI, katherine.browne@sei.org
Ulrika Lamberth, Senior Press Officer SEI, ulrika.lamberth@sei.org, + 46 73 801 70 53
Stockholm Environment Institute is an international non-profit research and policy organization that tackles environment and development challenges. We connect science and decision-making to develop solutions for a sustainable future for all. Across our eight centres in Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas, we engage with policy processes, development action and business practice throughout the world. www.sei.org @SEIresearch @SEIclimate