New SEI study for Sweden shows which groups are at most risk of losing out from the transition to a fossil-free society

A new study shows that around 40 percent of Swedes – especially those living in sparsely populated areas and those with a high dependence on cars – risk being more negatively affected as the country becomes fossil-free. In addition, the positive health effects of climate change do not benefit them to the same extent as other social groups. 

The study, which gives a detailed picture of the effects a transition to fossil-free societies entails, is published in the scientific journal Energy Research & Social Science. It also shows that the groups that risk losing the most also account for the largest part of greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, climate policy instruments that take more into account specific conditions of different groups can have more positive outcomes.  

– By identifying consumer groups at risk of losing from the fossil-free transition, this study emphasises the need for a targeted and well-planned emissions reduction policy and a transitional assistance policy to support a fair and just low-carbon transition for all. Focus must be on how to support those who will have a harder time to cope with the necessary transition, says Claudia Strambo, research fellow at SEI. 

The study underlines that a higher risk for adverse effects does not imply that these groups should avoid emissions reductions, as the alternative scenario is increasingly more severe.  Damaging impacts of climate change will greatly affect the world’s most vulnerable, including within developed countries.  

– About 40 percent of the Swedish population appears to be at greater risk from the adverse wealth and access effects related to a low-carbon transition, because of their heavier car dependence and a limited ability to cope with the expected price effects on carbon-intensive goods, says Maria Xylia, research fellow at SEI. 

The transition of carbon footprints compatible with at most 1.5°C warming – less than 1 tonne CO2eq per person by 2050 - will undoubtedly require significant behaviour changes for all societal groups: changes that affect people’s consumption habits, and which impacts are likely to be experienced unevenly by consumers. Failing to account for these differences puts at risk the prospects of a just transition. This is even more important now as both energy and food prices increase, putting more pressure on households but at the same time giving the opportunity for behavioural changes. 

– The study also finds that collectively, Swedes at a relatively higher risk of poverty and social exclusion are responsible for approximately 41 percent of consumption-based emissions. This group are the ones with the highest emissions per capita from car use, possibly due to lack of alternatives, such as access to public transportation, as well as their more rural geographic location, says Maria Xylia, research fellow at SEI.  

This study has identified numerous policy measures that are either existing or possible to adopt in a low-carbon transition. The assessment of carbon footprint variations across various socioeconomic groups helps identify specific footprint components where most targeted policy measures are needed.  

The footprint variations amongst different social groups suggest: 

• Food policies at the overarching national level and across all social groups would be more effective in addressing food consumption emissions. This is because food emissions are relatively homogeneous across Sweden's society. 

• For car travel, more targeted low-carbon and transitional assistance policies at the municipality level may be necessary. This is because this emission category is more linked to sociodemographic status and geographic location.  

– The responsibility for reducing those footprints should not rest solely on the consumers. Instead, policymakers should take account of the material, economic, social, and cultural factors that influence consumption and work to ensure that they are aligned to support low-carbon consumption, says Elena Dawkins, research fellow at SEI.  

About the study 

This study investigates the demand-side aspects of a just and inclusive low-carbon transition. With a focus on the transport and food sectors in Sweden, it combines footprint, sociodemographic and geographic analysis with the assessment of low-carbon transition policies’ distributional impacts from a wealth, access, and health perspective.  

Read the whole study in Energy Research and Social Science.

For more information, contact: 

Claudia Strambo, Research Fellow, claudia.strambo@sei.org, +46 70 388 26 80 

Maria Xylia, Research Fellow, maria.xylia@sei.org, + 46 76 069 34 52 

Ulrika Lamberth, Senior Press Officer, ulrika.lamberth@sei.org, 
+ 46 73 801 70 53 

Stockholm Environment Institute is an international non-profit research and policy organization that tackles environment and development challenges. We connect science and decision-making to develop solutions for a sustainable future for all. Across our eight centres in Europe, Asia, Africa and the Americas, we engage with policy processes, development action and business practice throughout the world. www.sei.org @SEIresearch @SEIclimate