A new approach towards emerging risk for life assurance

Wed, Sep 01, 2010 16:07 CET

At the Actuarial Profession’s current issues in life assurance (CILA) seminar on 1 September, 2010, leading life actuary, Neil Cantle, will present a new approach for the early identification of risk.

Mr Cantle suggests that the current approaches only work for risks which are already predicted but are weak at capturing emerging risks early in their development.

The approach of Mr Cantle and his colleagues looks at how underlying risk factors are interacting and causing uncertainty about business delivery. Emerging risk is assessed by measuring the uncertainty in the observed performance of an organisation and the interactions of its drivers rather than using observations to justify a preconception about where risks might be emerging.

Mr Cantle suggests: "Risk arises through the complex interactions of multiple factors, so if you want to see something new coming early you have to be studying the development of those interactions and working out what they might lead to. This approach gives actuaries the tools to measure uncertainty in performance early and to make sense of how it is emerging and where it might be leading to."

Ends

Notes to Editors:

1. Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals, and advise on social and public interest issues.

2. The Profession is governed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. A rigorous examination system is supported by a programme of continuing professional development and a professional code of conduct supports high standards reflecting the significant role of the Profession in society.

3. Members of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s.

4. The Profession is available to provide expert comment to the media on a range of actuarial- related issues, including enterprise risk management, finance and investment, general insurance, health and care, life assurance, mortality, and pensions.

Further information on the work of the Profession can be found at http://www.actuaries.org.uk/

Tags:

life assurance At the Actuarial Profession’s CILA emerging risks underlying risk factors