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Tory Betting Markets Gain Momentum in the UK

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With the cost of living crisis paired with NHS strikes and various Tory scandals, the UK political landscape is without question a cause for concern. According to recent data, tory-based bets are taking the limelight when it comes to UK political betting, with the number of political-based bets rising a huge 30% in Q4.

Recent polls suggest that Rushi Sunak's tenure could well come to an end in 2023. Rishi Sunak is currently rated as 20% likely to resign in 2023, with odds of 5.0 from most UK bookmakers. Bookies are also penning 2024 as the next general election year.

Steve Gummer, Director of international online betting portal, betting.bet, comments on the upward trajectory of UK political bets:

"Bookmakers famously misjudged Donald Trump's chances of winning the US presidential election and the UK's vote for Brexit. This complete unpredictability of UK politics makes it fascinating from a bettor's point of view. At betting.bet, we are seeing a significant spike in the number of bets being placed on UK politics, especially bets involving the conservative party."

When reviewing player behaviours from Q4, betting.bet found the following to be common markets UK bettors were showing an interest in.

  • Next Prime Minister
  • Next conseravtaive leader
  • Rishi Sunak's exit date
  • Year of the next general election
  • Next Foreign Secretary
  • Next general election: Most seats

But, how does political betting differ from sports betting?

"Political market odds, unlike sports, are based on consistent news flow. For example, if you're betting on an outright football tournament, previous matches, certain player signings etc, have a big impact on the outcome and dictate your winning potential. Political markets, on the other hand, do not have a score until the polls close. Betting decisions are, therefore, largely speculative." continues Gummer.

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