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In 2018, overseas supply of softwood lumber to the US reached a 11-year high
Hakan Ekstrom
With forest product imports from the US deteriorating and American wood product exporters losing market shares in the Chinese market, imports from other countries, including Canada and Russia, have fallen less or even expanded the past year.
Hakan Ekstrom
With the tight wood fiber supply in the US South, wood chip and pulplog prices in the 1Q/19 reached their highest levels in almost seven years in both in the South Central and Southeastern states.
Hakan Ekstrom
Demand for imported pellets in Japan and South Korea continued a three-year growth trend to reach record highs in the 4Q/18.
Hakan Ekstrom
In late 2018, gross margins for sawmills in North America fell while they were fairly stable in Europe and Russia.
Hakan Ekstrom
Pulpmills in some of the major hardwood pulp-producing regions in the world, including China, Finland, Indonesia and Spain, have seen their fiber costs go up between 10-30% the past two years.
Håkan Ekström
New Zealand has increased its market share from 30% to 44% of the total softwood log imports to China in just three years. While Canada and Russia have reduced log shipments the past few years, other smaller log suppliers including Japan, Poland, Chile and South Africa have expanded shipments.
Hakan Ekstrom
US lumber prices have gone through a historical roller-coaster ride over the past 12 months, falling 33% from June 2018 to January 2018.
Hakan Ekstrom
The limited price improvements over the past few years, oversupply of pine pulplogs, and potentially more attractive land-use alternatives in the agricultural sector, have led some landowners in Brazil to choose to plant agricultural crops rather than trees
Hakan Ekstrom
A gloomier outlook by Chinese consumers and a shortage of credits for many provincial governments and state-run firms have contributed to reduced demand for forest products
Hakan Ekstrom
Shipments of hardwood chips from Australia, the second largest chip supplier to China, have also increased over the past year but at a much more modest pace than shipments from Vietnam.
Hakan Ekstrom
Wood chip prices in western Canada and western US have gone up 25% from 3Q/17 to 3Q/18, the biggest in crease in North America.
Hakan Ekstrom
The timber harvests on public lands in British Columbia are set to decline over the next decade and uncertainty surrounds log availability in the eastern provinces.
Håkan Ekström
Sawlog prices in Russia and Eastern Europe have fallen in 2018 following a year of increases.
Håkan Ekström
The Global Softwood Fiber Price Index fell in the 2Q/18 but was still almost 8% higher the in the 2Q/17.
Hakan Ekstrom
Chinese importers have gradually shifted their historical preference for logs away from the Russian Federation towards New Zealand and instead are importing softwood lumber from their forest-rich neighbor in the north.
Håkan Ekström
• Softwood lumber prices were substantially higher in North America, Europe and China in the 2Q/18 as compared to the same quarter in 2017.
Hakan Ekstrom
Gross margins for sawmills in the Nordic countries were close to the highest they have been in over four years in the 2Q/18, while they reached levels not seen in more than a decade in other parts of Europe
Håkan Ekström
Softwood and hardwood log imports to Sweden up 25% and 70%, respectively in early 2018 as compared to early 2017.
Hakan Ekstrom
The US Pellet Feedstock Price Index fell 3.0% from 1Q/17 to 1Q/18 because of lower usage of costly roundwood
Hakan Ekstrom
The Global Hardwood Fiber Price Index reached the highest level in three years in the 1Q/18
Hakan Ekstrom
It is expected that US softwood lumber supply sources will shift to meet future increase in US lumber demand. Factors influencing these shifts include changes in availability of timber supply, prices of sawlogs, competitiveness of lumber producers, exchange rates and developments in alternative markets for lumber producers in Canada and overseas.
Hakan Ekstrom
• After softwood lumber consumption in the US reached a ten-year high in 2017, demand fell in early 2018. Despite the reduced consumption, lumber production on the US west coast jumped by over nine percent y-o-y in the 1Q/18 thanks to strong demand for lumber from China during the past year.
Hakan Ekstrom
Tights fiber supply in British Columbia and the US Northwest pushed chip prices up over 12% in the 1Q/18
Håkan Ekström
Lumber imports from Russia to China has doubled the past five years, while North American supply has been in decline.
Hakan Ekstrom
Changes in availability of timber supply, prices of sawlogs, competitiveness of lumber producers are some factors that are likely to shift future lumber supply sources to meet higher demand in the US.
Hakan Ekstrom
By far the biggest sawlog price increases in Europe in 2017 (in Euro-terms), was in Eastern Europe, where demand for sawlogs increased as lumber production rose.
Hakan Ekstrom
Strong demand and tight supply of wood fiber in Sweden resulted in increased wood chip imports in late 2017
Hakan Ekstrom
The Global Softwood Fiber Price Index (SFPI) increased 4.0% during 2017 mainly because of higher pulpwood prices in Western North America, Europe, Russia and Australia
Hakan Ekstrom
US softwood lumber consumption likely to reach record high by 2030 resulting in higher imports from Europe and Latin America
Hakan Ekstrom
Global softwood lumber trade reached an all-time high in 2017 during the 1H/17 and lumber prices have continued to move upward in most men markets around the world.
Hakan Ekstrom
Changes in availability of timber resources and forecasted increases in wood raw-material costs for sawmills around the world are likely to impact the trade of softwood lumber to the US in the future.
Hakan Ekstrom
The Global Sawlog Price Index (GSPI) has gone up for three consecutive quarter to reach a three-year high in the 3Q/17
Hakan Ekstrom
The Russian sawmilling sector continues to add capacity in Siberia and the Far East, targeting the expanding demand for lumber in China. Just during the first eight months of this year, Russia increased shipments to China by 23% as compared to the same period in 2016. Although Russian lumber prices have not changed much in Ruble terms over the past two years, there has been a steady increase in export prices as measured in US dollars.
Hakan Ekstrom
The increased competition for small-diameter logs has resulted in a dwindling supply of traditional pulplogs normally available for pulpmills
Hakan Ekstrom
The biggest increases in chip supply to Japan and China year-over-year have been from Chile and Indonesia.
Hakan Ekstrom
With price premiums surging in the export market, Australia's log exports reach record levels in 2017.
Hakan Ekstrom
Production cost margin for sawmills in the US South increased during much of 2016 and 2017 and reached its second highest level in 13 years in the 2Q/17.
Hakan Ekstrom
Hakan Ekstrom
In Finland, Russian and Brazil log costs have gone up faster than lumber prices resulting in reduce profit margins the past 18 months.
Lumber prices in both the US and Canada have trended upward for almost two years and reached 13-year highs in July. One exception has been pine lumber prices in the US South, which have fallen the past few months to the lowest level seen in almost a year.
Hakan Ekstrom
Hakan Ekstrom
Wood fiber costs for Nordic pulp mills were at their lowest level in over ten year in early 2017
There are expectations that sawlog prices may continue to go up in the coming months because of improved opportunities for Brazilian exporters of lumber, plywood and value-added products.
Hakan Ekstrom
Lower log and sawdust prices in the US South have resulted in a 15% decline of the Pellet Feedstock Price Index since 2013
Hakan Ekstrom
Although lumber production in New Zealand has increased the past three years, export volumes have fallen 15%.
Hakan Ekstrom
Lumber shipments from New Zealand to the US have gone up 37% the past four years and can be expected to increase in the future.
Hakan Ekstrom
The wood cost is often the major factor determining a pulp mill's competitiveness. In 2016 and early 2017, these costs fell in the US, with prices for wood chips and pulplogs declining more in the West than in the South.
Hakan Ekstrom
Consumption of pellets in Japan and South Korea has increased quite rapidly the past four years because of new government requirements which favor reducing carbon emissions and increasing the usage of renewable energy.
Hakan Ekstrom
Prices for imported softwood lumber to China have been in a steady upward trend during 2016 and 2017 with the average import price in March 2017 being 13% higher than 18 months earlier.
Hakan Ekstrom
High import tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber will increase overseas imports but Canada will remain the largest and most important supplier of lumber to the US housing market
Hakan Ekstrom
High supply of sawmills chips in Quebec and Ontario may force lumber companies to export chips outside the country
Hakan Ekstrom
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