Tactics for North Korean denuclearization: time for a rethink?
North Korea’s latest rocket launch and increasing defiance in the face of UN security resolutions puts US denuclearization strategy under stringent scrutiny.
Jong Kun Choi’s article in The Washington Quarterly explores the ‘perils’ of Obama’s strategic patience in anticipation of the economic collapse of North Korea’s repressive and unpredictable regime. Now in its 25th year, and showing few signs of burn out, should more active moves be taken towards denuclearization of North Korea? North Korea has now conducted three nuclear tests, plus the most recent under the guise of space programme development. Throughout, North Korea has brandished threats of nuclear and missile capabilities over South Korea, Japan and the US.
Despite this, the Obama administration has no active strategic route to denuclearization. Absence of diplomacy leaves the US on a wing and a prayer that sanctions will eventually topple the regime, which to date has survived famine, leadership change, failing industry, economic isolation and continuous unilateral sanctions. As the nuclear program gathers quickly, is it time to question the wisdom of collapsist theory and refusal to negotiate with North Korea? Jong Kun Choi urges a change of track, to assume North Korea’s endurance and quickly engage them in negotiation in order to resume denuclearization.
Against the odds, North Korea’s economy is growing with economic aid and trade from China which places geopolitical value in North Korea. China would be adversely affected by a North Korean collapse, which now seems increasingly unlikely. Failure to negotiate has left the US lacking intelligence on Pyongyang’s end goal for the nuclear program and sanctions have failed to halt nuclear development or demonstrate US commitment to denuclearization.
Meanwhile, the North Korean nuclear threat has become “real and present” growing at a rate to cause serious disquiet. The collective hope for North Korea’s collapse further exacerbates Pyongyang’s need to arm tooth and nail and continue ‘nuclear survival strategy.’ It’s a Catch-22 with possible profound consequences leaving nations jostling for position; North Korea with China and in turn Russia, the US with South Korea and Japan.
Jong Kun Choi believes that the choices are clear; accept North Korea as an operationally nuclear state or engage them. "Security assurances in exchange for denuclearization as an end goal" could be offered instead. Collapsist rhetoric only prolongs stalemate, reinforces North Korea’s defensive stance and contributes nothing towards a viable solution. North Korea has joined past negotiations and could come back; there is only one way to find out.
Jung Kun Choi concludes, “It would be unbearably painful to face a future where North Korea emerges as an operationally nuclear state. If such a scenario were to materialize, we would have only ourselves to blame. The Obama administration needs to re-examine the strategic utility of negotiating with Pyongyang. North Korea’s nuclear weapons program may be exchangeable in return for U.S. security assurances, a situation which can lead to gradual change in North Korea’s state identity from a rogue nation to a reformable state”.
Follow us on Twitter: Rout_PoliticsIR
NOTE TO JOURNALISTS
When referencing the article: Please include Journal title, author, published by Taylor & Francis and the following statement:
* Read the full article online:http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0163660X.2015.1125829
For more information please contact: Joseph Couchman Marketing Executive, Journals Marketing email: joseph.couchman@tandf.co.uk
-----------------------------------------
About Taylor & Francis Group
-----------------------------------------
Taylor & Francis Group partners with researchers, scholarly societies, universities and libraries worldwide to bring knowledge to life. As one of the world’s leading publishers of scholarly journals, books, ebooks and reference works our content spans all areas of Humanities, Social Sciences, Behavioural Sciences, Science, and Technology and Medicine.
From our network of offices in Oxford, New York, Philadelphia, Boca Raton, Boston, Melbourne, Singapore, Beijing, Tokyo, Stockholm, New Delhi and Johannesburg, Taylor & Francis staff provide local expertise and support to our editors, societies and authors and tailored, efficient customer service to our library colleagues.
Tags: