Why the EU got the Ukrainian crisis wrong
The recent EU brokered deal to boost Ukrainian free trade sparked a deepening Ukrainian crisis. The agreement was rejected, Crimea annexed, and a passenger flight shot down and military intervention ensued. EU attempts to place Ukraine in a free market with European identity instead resulted in a destabilised Ukraine in the wake of a separatist uprising, sanctions and damaged relations between Russia and the West. Should the EU have foreseen Russia’s views on an EU-Ukrainian deal as a threat to post-Soviet security? Robertshaw’s research in Global Affairs studies where the EU went wrong and necessary future action.
Post-Soviet Russia is resolute in creating a powerful nation with robust military security. In Ukraine, Russian power was exercised by proxy via Russian militia, sent to defend ‘ethnic Russians’, who from an EU perspective were simply being offered an economic deal and step towards democratisation. Russia perceived EU motivation as another move to dent Russian Sovereignty, exacerbating existing sentiments of NATO, the US and the West as a joint Russian opposition force. EU ‘soft-power’ responses such as the economic sanctions imposed do not sit well in the face of a potential Eurasian Union, which needs serious EU consideration.
Meanwhile Russian derailment of the Ukrainian trade agreement, have been a shot across the bow to those encroaching Russian borders. Ill-thought out post-crisis EU statements to confirm peaceful EU intentions and ward off Russian military action were unproductive and the EU Foreign Affairs Council statement “The European Union strongly condemns the clear violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity by acts of aggression by the Russian armed forces as well as the authorization given by the Federation Council of Russia” further entrenched Russian thoughts of the West as anti-Russian.
For now Russia has shelved EU infringement on post-Soviet territory; Ukrainian membership to NATO and the EU has been shelved and Russia has gained Crimea. The EU could perhaps take a leaf out of Russia’s book and look to ‘hard’ power solutions like an independent security force. Robertshaw concludes “The EU has to reconsider its security capabilities and its relationship with Russia whilst avoiding Cold War frameworks and rhetoric as they only serve to further entrench Russian security narratives, making it more challenging to prevent and solve crises.”
Why the EU got the Ukrainian crisis wrong
Sam Robertshaw
Global Affairs
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http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23340460.2015.1063249
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