SEB Investment Outlook: Divided view of the economic cycle
We are headed towards the end of the upturn phase in this economic cycle, but global growth will continue for another couple of years. The timing of the transition to the next phase is always hard to foresee. We regard the gradual deceleration that is part of our forecast as the most likely scenario but are prepared for a more dramatic process, as history has often provided. In early August we reduced the risk in our portfolios to a neutral level. We based this decision on a combination of a late-cyclical phase, no further acceleration in the global economic growth rate, a strong