Economic growth has already peaked
We expect economic growth in most advanced economies to slow over the coming years, partly due to a tightening of resource utilisation, as well as less of a positive impact from cyclical factors. Structural factors, such as lower trend growth in productivity and the labour force, also play a part. Our main scenario for most advanced economies is an expectation of modest growth, subdued inflation and low interest rates, albeit with high and increasing downside risks. Uncertainty is prevalent, primarily due to political factors in Europe and a looming cyclical downturn in the US.The US