DNB Markets - IAR Systems: Resetting expectations on security
We have lowered our 2021–2022e EPS by c15% to reflect the slower ramp-up of IoT security. Challenges remain, but as customer behaviour normalises, with solid traction for 64-bit, RISC-V, and functional safety products, we see sales and EPS CAGRs of 13% and 25%, respectively, to 2023e. We have lowered our fair value to SEK150–220 (180-250), which corresponds to a 2022e P/E of 27x.Q2 short of expectations. Given the roughly flat top-line growth 2018–2021 (-4% CAGR in new license sales offset by 8% CAGR in support and maintenance licenses), Q2’s -2% organic sales growth YOY fell short of our 5%