New macroeconomic forecast: Tailwinds now, but autumn storms are coming
Global growth this year has been stronger than expected, and the major economies are growing at a pace that is steadily absorbing economic slack. We expect continued robust growth over the next few quarters. We foresee a global growth slowdown approaching in 2019 as the US enters into recession. The central banks are now adjusting monetary policy to a more tightening bias. However, when the US downturn comes, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin easing monetary policy again.· Cycle maturing, heading toward recession · Tricky reorientation of monetary policy · Global slowdown in