SEB: Eastern European Outlook, October 2104: Gradual recovery despite Russian and Ukrainian weakness
Gradual economic recovery will continue in Poland/Central Europe and the Baltic countries in 2015-2016 despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is making Russia start to stagnate and causing Ukraine's GDP to plunge this year. But growth in Poland, Latvia and Lithuania will be moderate. In Estonia - which is also squeezed by Finland's stagnation - it will remain weak. Short-term growth will also be squeezed by a temporary economic slump in Germany and the euro zone. Zero growth can be expected in the euro zone during the second half of 2014, partly due to uncertainty about the Ukraine